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Esoteric Knowledge of Pivot Points Statistics

As I have explored the topic of support and resistance I have taken interest in a specific kind of S & R levels, pivot points. I have read a couple

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قديم 24-02-2012, 04:38 PM
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تاريخ التسجيل: Sun Sep 2011
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افتراضي Esoteric Knowledge of Pivot Points Statistics

Esoteric Knowledge of Pivot Points Statistics

As I have explored the topic of support and resistance I have taken interest in a specific kind of S & R levels, Pivot points. I have read a couple different articles that show a statistically derived probability that a certain pivot point will be touched or some behavior will occur in relation to the various s & r levels. Take for example Jamie Saettele’s article in Investopedia. (Ref. 1)
The result: there have been 2,026 trading days since the inception of the euro as of October 12, 2006.
• The actual low has been lower than S1 892 times, or 44% of the time
• The actual high has been higher than R1 853 times, or 42% of the time
• The actual low has been lower than S2 342 times, or 17% of the time
• The actual high has been higher than R2 354 times, or 17% of the time
• The actual low has been lower than S3 63 times, or 3% of the time
• The actual high has been higher than R3 52 times, or 3% of the time
I have degrees in engineering and physics:cheesy:, so I prefer empirical proof over “take my word for it”. The issue I’m having is that my Statistics are a little rusty! How are these probabilities calculated? I mean how is the data statistically analyzed to come up with 44% of the time the low has been lower than s1 (see the first bullet above)?

It seems reasonable, given the history of pivot points, there should be examples on how to do a hypothesis test or make a probability distribution of price action as related to these levels. Or is this just Esoteric knowledge?

CAN ANYONE HELP???:?:


Ref. 1: Using Pivot Points In Forex Trading;

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